Tonga vs Samoa is the final game of the pool stage of the Rugby League World Cup 2026, and both teams are unbeaten. Mate Ma'a Tonga and Toa Samoa (also searched as Tao Samoa) meet at CommBank Stadium in Sydney at 8:05 PM AEDT on Sunday 1 November. This preview covers form, history, key players and our prediction. It is editorial opinion, not betting advice.
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Tonga vs Samoa prediction
Our prediction: Samoa by a narrow margin. The two teams are close in form, and this could go either way. Samoa have scored more points (78–4 against France and 64–6 against Papua New Guinea) and they won the last meeting 34–6 at the Pacific Championships. But Tonga beat England 30–12 and Lebanon 36–0, and they will want revenge in front of a sold-out crowd. A match like this is often settled by one or two moments, so expect a low-margin finish.
Form: how both teams got here
| Result | Tonga | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Beat England 30–12 | Beat France 78–4 |
| Round 2 | Beat Lebanon 36–0 | Beat Papua New Guinea 64–6 |
Samoa lead the combined Pool B and C table on points difference, and Tonga are second. See the pool tables for the latest standings.
Tonga vs Samoa head-to-head
- 2025 Pacific Championships: Samoa won 34–6 at Suncorp Stadium, in front of nearly 45,000 fans.
- 2022 World Cup quarter-final: Samoa won 20–18.
Tonga halfback Isaiya Katoa has said his side will carry the pain of last year's loss into the match. Prop Demitric Vaimauga called it bigger than a final for him, and Tyson Frizell has described it as a Pasifika-style State of Origin.
Key players and coaches
- Tonga: coach Kristian Woolf, Jason Taumalolo, Isaiya Katoa, Tyson Frizell and Demitric Vaimauga. Rob Toia and Jojo Fifita chose Tonga over Australia for this tournament.
- Samoa: coach Ben Gardiner, with Jarome Luai, Brian To'o, Stephen Crichton, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Sua Fa'alogo, who scored four tries against France.
Team lists are not confirmed in this article. We will update it when the sides are named, so check back before kick-off or follow the live page.
Why this match matters
The tournament's official site says a win will secure a semi-final place, and that a Tonga win would put them in the semi-finals for the first time since 2017. The best result either country has had is a final for Samoa in 2021 and a semi-final for Tonga in 2017.
Kick-off time in your timezone
| Region | Local time (Sunday 1 November) |
|---|---|
| Australia, Sydney (AEDT) | 8:05 PM |
| Australia, Brisbane (AEST) | 7:05 PM |
| Australia, Perth (AWST) | 5:05 PM |
| New Zealand (NZDT) | 10:05 PM |
| Tonga and Samoa | 10:05 PM |
| Fiji | 9:05 PM |
| Papua New Guinea | 7:05 PM |
| Bangladesh | 3:05 PM |
| India | 2:35 PM |
| Pakistan | 2:05 PM |
| South Africa | 11:05 AM |
| France (CET) | 10:05 AM |
| United Kingdom (GMT) | 9:05 AM |
| USA Eastern (EST) | 4:05 AM |
| USA Pacific (PST) | 1:05 AM |
Clocks in the UK and France went back on 25 October, and US clocks go back on the morning of 1 November, so the US times above are winter time.
More on Tonga vs Samoa
Read about Tonga and Samoa, see the Tonga vs Samoa match page, check the RLWC 2026 schedule, and follow the whole tournament on the Rugby League World Cup live page.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tonga vs Samoa at the Rugby League World Cup?
Our prediction is a very close Tonga vs Samoa match, with Samoa narrowly ahead because of their points difference and recent win over Tonga. It is a coin toss between two unbeaten sides, and this is editorial opinion, not betting advice.
What time is Tonga vs Samoa?
Kick-off is 8:05 PM AEDT on Sunday 1 November 2026 at CommBank Stadium in Sydney, which is 10:05 PM in Tonga and Samoa and 9:05 AM in the UK.
What are the results so far for Tonga and Samoa?
Tonga beat England 30–12 and Lebanon 36–0. Samoa beat France 78–4 and Papua New Guinea 64–6.
When did Tonga and Samoa last play?
Samoa won 34–6 at last year's Pacific Championships at Suncorp Stadium in front of nearly 45,000 fans. Samoa also won their 2022 World Cup quarter-final against Tonga 20–18.
Does the winner of Tonga vs Samoa reach the semi-finals?
The tournament's official site says a win will secure a semi-final place for either side. The combined Pool B and C format is complicated, so check our pool tables for the latest.